GPS TEC forecasting based on auto-correlation analysis

Abstract

The GPS-derived TEC has proved to be a robust characteristic representing well the state of the Earth's ionosphere-plasmasphere system during both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Successfully forecasting the TEC value can prove invaluable when trying to improve the communications, navigation, and surveying practices. Presented is a new forecasting method based on auto-correlation analysis and consisting of two major parts - first, extrapolation of the TEC monthly medians using Fourier series approximation, and second, geomagnetically-correlated forecast of the TEC relative deviations of from its median value. Preliminary tests show a good agreement between measured and predicted median values. Presented are also important investigations related to the short-term forecast.