Outcomes and strategies in the ‘New Great Game’: China and the Caspian states emerge as winners

Abstract

The decades-long struggle for control over oil and natural gas resources, infrastructure and influence in the Caspian region has been referred to as the ‘New Great Game’, with Europe, China, the US and Russia typically cited as the main combatants. We explore recent developments and aver that, if present trends continue, Europe will have access to Azerbaijan's resources, China to those of the East Caspian states, the US will stay commercially and strategically engaged, and Russia's influence will (continue to) diminish. How did this unexpected turn of events arise? We examine China's dominance and argue that the foreign policies of the US and Russia – within the region and even further abroad – have inadvertently driven the East Caspian states and China towards each other. Wary of potential maritime chokepoints in the Pacific, China feels strongly compelled to shore up resources and influence in the Caspian region. In part because of Russia's intransigence regarding the Caspian Sea's status, the East Caspian states – faced with constrained access to the West – have turned to China as an alternative market and counterbalance to Russia.