Foresight in an unpredictable world

Abstract

Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability. When disruptive and downstream innovations become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clarifies why policy, strategy, and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches.