An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration

TLDR

The study develops an optimal control model of carbon sequestration and energy abatement to investigate forests' potential in greenhouse gas mitigation. The authors construct an optimal control framework that jointly models carbon sequestration and energy abatement to evaluate forest contributions to GHG mitigation. The model predicts that carbon sequestration costs rise with atmospheric accumulation, yet landowners can sequester significant amounts by expanding forestland and extending rotations, with forests contributing roughly one‑third of total abatement and tropical forests storing over two‑thirds of the added carbon.

Abstract

This study develops an optimal control model of carbon sequestration and energy abatement to explore the potential role of forests in greenhouse gas mitigation. The article shows that if carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, the rental price for carbon sequestration should rise over time. From an empirical model, we find that carbon sequestration is costly, but that landowners can sequester substantial amounts of carbon in forests mainly by increasing forestland and lengthening rotations. Forest sequestration is predicted to account for about one‐third of total carbon abatement. Tropical forests store over two‐thirds of this added carbon.