The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816–1985

TLDR

The study models war duration by incorporating realpolitik and domestic political variables, hypothesizing that strategy, terrain, capabilities, and government type will significantly influence war length. The authors employ hazard analysis to test the model’s hypotheses about war duration. Empirical analysis shows that realpolitik factors outweigh regime behavior in determining war duration, while mobilization and strategic surprise have minimal impact and wars are not duration dependent.

Abstract

We present a model of war duration which incorporates both realpolitik and domestic political variables. We hypothesize that strategy, terrain, capabilities, and government type, among other variables, will play key roles in determining the duration of war. We test these hypotheses using hazard analysis and find empirical support for our key arguments. We find that the realpolitik variables play a greater role than regime behavior and type in determining war duration. We also find that historically, on average, mobilization and strategic surprise have little effect on war duration and that wars are not duration dependent.