Linking juvenile white spruce density, dispersion, stocking, and mortality to future yield

Abstract

We examined methods of linking density, dispersion, and stocking information from juvenile regeneration surveys with mortality estimates to predict future yield of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in boreal mixedwoods. The study focused on data from 709 stands (7–150 years) and defined a stocked plot (10 m 2 ) as having one or more acceptable trees. In juvenile surveys, ingress of natural spruce overwhelmed the regular planting pattern, creating clumped dispersion patterns, as indicated by the Morisita index. A function was developed to describe the relationship between stocking, density, and dispersion. In mature, permanent sample plots, only 30%–40% stocking of 10 m 2 plots (700 stems·ha –1 ) was needed to achieve full yields. Mortality rates for planted spruce varied from 0.1% to 0.8% per year for juvenile stands and from 1.7% to 3.3% per year for mature stands. For rotation-length predictions in Alberta, 0.7% per year is likely a mean mortality loss. These findings were combined to generate stocking versus time curves at a range of mortality rates. The tallest spruce measured in each juvenile survey plot had the same mortality rate regardless of absolute size, and spruce mortality was reduced when associated with aspen. These findings call into question minimum height requirements and free-to-grow criteria in regeneration standards.