Century scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest

Abstract

Interannual time-scale associations between fire occurrence anddrought indices, the Southern Oscillation, and other synopticpatterns demonstrate that large-scale, long term atmospheric featuresare precursors to regional fire activity. However, our knowledge offire-climate relations over longer (century) timescales is fragmentary because of the rarity of comparable climate and fire time-series with sufficient resolution, length and regional extent. In this study, we develop reconstructions of wildfire occurrence from tree-ring data collected from northwestern New Mexico to compare with a millennium-length dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation. Reconstructions of both wildfires and climate show simultaneous changes since AD 1700 that indicate climate forcing of wildfire regimes on interannual to century timescales. Following a centuries-long dry period with high fire frequency ( c. AD 1400-1790), annual precipitation increased, fire frequency decreased, and the season of fire shifted from predominantly midsummer to late spring. We hypothesize that these shifts in fire regimes reflect long-term changes in rainfall patternsassociated with changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the Southern Oscillation. Our evidence supports century-scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest, providing a useful analogue of future wildfire regimes expected uinder changing global climate conditions.