Climate Change and the Sustainability of Ski-based Tourism in Eastern North America: A Reassessment

TLDR

Ski‑tourism sustainability is vulnerable to climate change, yet prior studies have largely ignored snowmaking, a key adaptation strategy in eastern North America. The study aims to evaluate how snowmaking mitigates climate‑change vulnerability in six eastern North American ski areas by modeling season length, operation probability, snowmaking costs, and water needs. The authors developed a model that estimates season length, operation probability during key tourism periods, snowmaking costs, and water requirements under different climate scenarios. In the 2020s, even the warmest scenario poses only a minor risk to four of the six ski areas, and in the 2050s only the warmest scenario threatens three areas, while the interaction of climate change with non‑climate business factors may advantage some areas and drive further contraction and consolidation in the regional market.

Abstract

The sustainability of skiing tourism has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to global climate change. Earlier research, however, did not fully consider snowmaking as an adaptation strategy, which is integral to the ski industry in eastern North America. This study examines how it reduces the vulnerability of ski areas to climate change in six study areas by developing a model to assess the impact of climate change on season length, probability of operations during critical tourism periods, snowmaking costs, and water requirements. It suggests that in the 2020s, even the warmest climate change scenario poses only a minor risk to four of the six ski areas. The reassessment for the 2050s period found that only the warmest scenario would jeopardise the sustainability of three of the ski areas examined. The confluence of climatic changes and other non-climate business factors will advantage certain ski areas and likely result in further contraction and consolidation in this regional ski market.