Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions

On the psychology of prediction.

Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · Psychological Review · 1973 · 6.2K citations

Bayesian Decision Theory, Behavioral Decision Making, Cognition +22

Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography

Robert T. Clemen · International Journal of Forecasting · 1989 · 2.2K citations

Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis

Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler · Risk Analysis · 1999 · 806 citations

Bayesian Decision Theory, Engineering, Risk Metric +21

Advice Taking in Decision Making: Egocentric Discounting and Reputation Formation

Ilan Yaniv, Eli Kleinberger · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · 2000 · 673 citations

Marketing, Behavioral Decision Making, Bias +13

Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.

Ido Erev, Thomas S. Wallsten, David V. Budescu · Psychological Review · 1994 · 651 citations

Cognitive Biases, Cognitive Science, Behavioral Sciences +11