Exploiting Opportunities in Uncertainty During the Early Project Phase

Abstract

The early project phase is associated with uncertainty. In past literature on projects as well as in business, uncertainty (risk) is often conceived of as something unpleasant that should be avoided. This paper, in contrast, points at unexploited opportunities embedded in this uncertain early project phase. The key argument is that the profit potential of projects is inversely related to degree of uncertainty. A distinction is made between internal and external sources of uncertainty to capture the uncertainty profile of projects. Analysis of four large-scaled projects shows that choice of project strategy can alter dramatically a project’s uncertainty profile and thus its profit potential. Implications for project management are highlighted.