2012 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2011-2021

Abstract

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2011-2021 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years. Sugar prices increased from 18.7 cents/ lb in 2009, 27 cents/lb in 2010 and 32 cent/lb in 2011. World sugar production increased in 2010 along with consumption. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices remaining near the 23.0 -28.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to remain in the 38 to 45 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. It is projected that Mexican exports to the United States will decrease to 488 thousand metric tons of sugar by 2021. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.