A Survival Time Analysis of Criminal Sanctions for Misdemeanor Offenders

Abstract

Since misdemeanor offenders may significantly contribute to local jail overcrowding, it is incumbent upon criminal justice policy makers to explore alternatives to incarceration for society's less serious offenders. In order to address the feasibility of adopting a policy of alternative sanctions for general misdemeanor offenders, the investigators conducted a three year longitudinal study of minor offenders sentenced to fine, probation, and jail in a large southwest urban jurisdiction (Houston, Texas). The most salient finding was the emergence of probation as a superior sanction. Utilizing traditional chi-square analysis, probation exhibited the lowest recidivism rate. Employing recently developed survival time analysis, probationers had a significantly higher probability of not recidivating than jailed offenders during the study period. The authors conclude by discussing the policy implications of these findings.