BELOW-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY AND CHILDBEARING INTENTION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE, CHINA

Abstract

Using data from a large-scale survey in six counties in Jiangsu province, this study examines the effects of government policy, and economic and social development, on fertility. The analysis reveals that the extremely low fertility—total fertility rate (TFR) of close to 1.0—that currently prevails in this area of China is explained largely by factors other than the government's birth-control policy. Among couples who are eligible under the current policy to have two children, the majority say that they have voluntarily chosen to have only one child, and they cite economic considerations as the primary reasons for this choice. A fundamental shift appears to have occurred, such that government control is no longer necessary to maintain low fertility. If China's one-child policy were to be phased out, it is unlikely to lead to an unwanted baby boom in this area of the country.