On space weather consequences and predictions

TLDR

Space weather forecasting must identify which parameters predict hazards to technology, yet gaps remain in understanding storm‑time particle populations, and the paper is not encyclopedic. The study examines whether the parameters currently targeted for prediction are the ones that actually pose hazards to space technology. The authors emphasize the need to predict fast coronal mass ejections and to understand CME initiation, acceleration, and high‑energy particle propagation. The study finds that sunspot numbers and solar flares are not directly needed for hazard prediction, and geomagnetic indices such as Kp are rarely required.

Abstract

This paper focuses on the question of what needs to be predicted and what processes need to be understood to predict and forecast space weather conditions that are hazardous to current technology. The paper's aim is to see if we are working on the correct space parameters to permit prediction of those quantities that actually present hazards to current space technology. The paper is not intended to be encyclopedic. We conclude that although the sunspot number is a general proxy for many space hazards, there is surprisingly little direct need for its accurate prediction or for the prediction of solar flares as such. We also find that knowledge of Kp and other geomagnetic indices are rarely directly required. Important gaps in our knowledge exist concerning the variations of storm time electron, proton, and ion populations within the magnetosphere. Work is also required in predicting fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and in understanding the processes of CME initiation and acceleration within the corona and high energy solar particle acceleration and propagation.