Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951–2010?

TLDR

The study computed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index from monthly precipitation and temperature data at 609 Chinese sites (1951–2010) and analyzed drought characteristics such as trends, affected area, intensity, duration, and frequency. Results show that severe and extreme droughts have intensified since the late 1990s, with dry area expanding ~3.72% per decade, multi‑year severe droughts becoming more frequent in North, Northeast, and western Northwest China, and significant drying trends across many regions driven by falling precipitation and rising temperatures, while the 1990s–2000s saw the longest drought durations and recent decades saw increased frequency in several northern and western provinces, providing a basis for early warning systems. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ( SPEI ) was computed based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature values at 609 locations over China during the period 1951–2010.Various characteristics of drought across China were examined including: long‐term trends, percentage of area affected, intensity, duration, and drought frequency. The results revealed that severe and extreme droughts have become more serious since late 1990s for all of China (with dry area increasing by ∼3.72% per decade); and persistent multi‐year severe droughts were more frequent in North China, Northeast China, and western Northwest China; significant drying trends occurred over North China, the southwest region of Northeast China, central and eastern regions of Northwest China, the central and southwestern parts of Southwest China and southwestern and northeastern parts of western Northwest mainly due to a decrease in precipitation coupled with a general increase in temperature. In addition, North China, the western Northwest China, and the Southwest China had their longest drought durations during the 1990s and 2000s. Droughts also affected western Northwest, eastern Northwest, North, and Northeast regions of China more frequently during the recent three decades. The results of this article could provide certain references and triggers for establishing a drought early warning system in China. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society