Comparative Economic Voting: Britain, France, Germany, Italy

Abstract

likelihood of a vote for the incumbent coalition. In contrast, personal economic circumstances, no matter how measured, demonstrate nonexistent to weak effects on vote choice. Overall, economic conditions emerge as a relatively important vote determinant. When a more properly specified, general multi-equation model of the vote is estimated, economics shows itself to be as powerful as traditional factors used to explain the Western European vote. In particular, economic variables exceed the impact of partisan identification in Britain, and roughly equal it in Germany. Moreover, the economic variables exercise more influence than the social cleavages of class and religion everywhere except Italy.