Post-earthquake modelling of transportation networks

Abstract

Abstract Transportation networks are critical civil infrastructures susceptible to natural hazards such as earthquakes. It is essential to understand and model the travel demand in emergency situation when considering measures to secure traffic function immediately after the earthquake and to restore the performance of transportation networks. Post-earthquake travel demand is complicated, and the changes of traffic pattern after the event are often coupled with the physical damage of transportation infrastructures. This study develops a scenario-based methodology to model the performance of post-earthquake transportation systems by extending the combined trip distribution and assignment model. Several general assumptions are made on post-earthquake travel behaviour and emergency traffic management measures. The proposed methodology is demonstrated with the Sioux-Falls road network and results are presented. The findings suggest that such scenario-based integrated methodology can capture the post-earthquake travel characteristics and is capable to provide more reasonable results than conventional transportation modelling approaches. The methodology can be used to model the emergency demand and post-earthquake performance of transportation systems. It is helpful to aid traffic planners and emergency managers in evaluating their contingency traffic plans and making decisions in emergency management. Keywords: infrastructuresnetworkstravel demandroads and highwaysearthquakerisk management Acknowledgements The first author was financially supported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through a grant from the US Army Corps of Engineers (Army W9132T-06-2). This support is gratefully acknowledged. The first author was also thankful to Dr. YoungSuk Kim of EQECat Inc., Ms. Lisa Cleveland and Mr. Timothy Gress of the MAE Center for their valuable discussion and assistance. The authors sincerely appreciate Mr. Steve Besemer of Missouri State Emergency Management Agency and Mr. Richard Bennett of Missouri Department of Transportation for their comments on the draft of the manuscript.