A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Timber Market under Global Warming: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Abstract

We develop a dynamic integrated modeling approach to identify the effect of global warming on the global timber market. The Timber Supply Model (TSM) 2000, BIOME 3, and Hamburg are used as suitable economic and ecological models. In particular, the TSM 2000 is developed to incorporate important additional components in the global timber market. We estimate dynamic ecological change based on the simulation results of BIOME 3 using Hamburg and linearity assumptions about change in climate and ecosystem. The projected dynamic ecological changes are run through the TSM 2000 to identify the effects of dynamic climate change on the timber market. We simulate a non–climate change base scenario and a climate change scenario of the TSM 2000, and we conclude that global warming has a positive effect on the global timber market through an increase of timber production causing stumpage prices to be lower than they otherwise would have been. In the welfare sense, we also identify that global warming is economically beneficial to society through the global timber market.