The Effect of Uncertainty Visualizations on Decision Making in Weather Forecasting

Abstract

People's reasoning with uncertainty information is often flawed. Visual representations can help, but little is known about what is the best way to present such information. Two studies investigated the effect of visualizations on the understanding and use of wind speed forecast uncertainty. Participants varied in expertise from novices in weather forecasting (Experiment 1) to professional forecasters (Experiment 2). The authors investigated three visualizations: (a) a chart showing the amount of uncertainty, (b) a chart showing the worst-case scenario, and (c) a box plot of likely wind speeds. Participants were asked to determine the relative uncertainty in the forecast, predict wind speed, and decide whether to post a high-wind warning advisory. The results for novices and professional forecasters were similar. The uncertainty chart enhanced awareness of the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecast, box plots improved reading accuracy, and presenting a visualization of the worst-case scenario introduced bias in the deterministic wind speed forecast. An interactive display (e.g., a combination of an uncertainty chart with a box plot display) may be optimal to convey uncertainty information.