The Perfect Ocean for Drought

TLDR

The 1998‑2002 droughts across the United States, southern Europe, and Southwest Asia were linked by a common oceanic influence. The study draws implications for future drought. Climate models indicate that signals from these regions acted synergistically, each contributing to widespread mid‑latitude drying and creating an ideal scenario for spatially expansive, synchronized drought. Cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans persisted during 1998‑2002, with the unprecedented warmth of the Indian and western Pacific oceans aligning with greenhouse gas forcing.

Abstract

The 1998-2002 droughts spanning the United States, southern Europe, and Southwest Asia were linked through a common oceanic influence. Cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm SSTs in the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans were remarkably persistent during this period. Climate models show that the climate signals forced separately by these regions acted synergistically, each contributing to widespread mid-latitude drying: an ideal scenario for spatially expansive, synchronized drought. The warmth of the Indian and west Pacific oceans was unprecedented and consistent with greenhouse gas forcing. Some implications are drawn for future drought.