Variable Selection via Gibbs Sampling
Journal of the American Statistical Association · 1993 · 2.7K citations · 26 references
Bayesian StatisticBayesian Decision TheoryMarkov Chain Monte CarloVariable SelectionLatent ModelingGibbs MeasureMixture AnalysisManagementGibbs SampleBiostatisticsBayesian MethodsPublic HealthStatisticsBayesian Hierarchical ModelingLatent Variable MethodsPredictive AnalyticsLatent Variable ModelGibbs SamplerMarginal Structural ModelsBayesian StatisticsPromising SubsetsStatistical Inference
Selecting predictors for a multiple regression model is a crucial problem. This article proposes a probabilistic procedure to select promising predictor subsets. The method embeds regression in a hierarchical normal mixture, uses latent variables to identify subsets, and applies a Gibbs sampler to sample from the posterior over subsets, highlighting those with higher probability.
Abstract A crucial problem in building a multiple regression model is the selection of predictors to include. The main thrust of this article is to propose and develop a procedure that uses probabilistic considerations for selecting promising subsets. This procedure entails embedding the regression setup in a hierarchical normal mixture model where latent variables are used to identify subset choices. In this framework the promising subsets of predictors can be identified as those with higher posterior probability. The computational burden is then alleviated by using the Gibbs sampler to indirectly sample from this multinomial posterior distribution on the set of possible subset choices. Those subsets with higher probability—the promising ones—can then be identified by their more frequent appearance in the Gibbs sample.
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