The Competitive Impact of Air Crashes: Stock Market Evidence

Abstract

We examine stock market reactions to commercial air crashes to test the hypothesis that consumers respond by switching to rival airlines and/or flying less. We focus on the stock price reactions of airlines not involved in the crash. If switching occurs, noncrash airlines should benefit to the extent that they are direct competitors of the crash airline. We develop a measure of market overlap and regress individual non-crash-airline abnormal returns on this measure, allowing the constant term to capture any negative spillovers. The evidence supports both a switching effect and a spillover. Copyright 1998 by the University of Chicago.