Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central Alberta

Abstract

Changes in climatic conditions may influence both forest biomass accumulation rates and natural disturbance regimes. While changes in biomass accumulation of forests under various climatic conditions have been described by yield equations, large uncertainties exist with regard to disturbance regimes. Under the doubling carbon dioxide scenario, global warming impacts have been predicted from simulation results of the first generation of coupled global climate model (CGCMI). The calculated fine fuel moisture code (FFMC) distribution from the simulation results showed a one-point increase compared with the distribution under current climate conditions. The impact of predicted changes in FFMC distributions on fire disturbance patterns, forest volume, and landscape structure was investigated by using the spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics (SEM-LAND). The simulation results showed increases in fire disturbance frequency and decreases in forest volume. The simulations also showed decreases in landscape fragmentation and landscape diversity, whereas total availability of core habitat for wildlife increased.