The Malthusian fallacy: Prophecies of doom and the crisis of Social Security

Abstract

Thomas Malthus and the neo-Malthusians are concerned about exponential growth of the population and the consequences of this growth on the world. Their predictions of doom are often misplaced because they do not take into account changes that may counterbalance population growth. This is the Malthusian fallacy: forecast of doom predicated on one change that does not take other changes into account. This paper examines the root of this fallacy and examines the prophecies of doom that swirl around Social Security as the graying baby boomers move toward their retirement years in record numbers.