Psychology Crime and Law · 2008 · 61 citations · 34 references
Social SciencesCriminologyPsychiatryForensic PsychiatryRisk AssessmentSexual OffensesChild Sexual AbuseCrime Risk AssessmentForensic Psychiatric AssessmentSex Offender AssessmentSexual Offending AssessmentViolence Risk AssessmentActuarial Risk Assessment InstrumentsRecidivism RatesRisk Assessment ValidityRisk MatrixSex Offender Risk AssessmentSexual Offense Risk AssessmentSexual Recidivism PredictionViolence Risk Prediction
Abstract The newly developed actuarial risk instruments, Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, 2003a) and Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) (Thornton et al., 2003), were cross-validated and compared with Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) in a retrospective follow-up study of 304 forensic psychiatrically evaluated sexual offenders (mean time-at-risk=14.8 years). All instruments predicted any sexual, non-sexual violent and any violent recidivism moderately for child molesters [area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)=0.67 (95% CI=0.57–0.77) to 0.76 (95% CI=0.68–0.85)] but poorly for rapists [AUCs=0.64 (95% CI=0.51–0.70) to 0.68 (95% CI=0.59–0.77)]. The instruments also predicted severe sexual recidivism moderately for child molesters [AUCs=0.74 (95% CI=0.63–0.86) to 0.79 (95% CI=0.70–0.89)] but were of no value in informing on this outcome for rapists [AUCs=0.58 (95% CI=0.47–0.68) to 0.63 (95% CI=0.53–0.73)]. AUC estimates were generally higher for Static-2002 and RM2000 than for Static-99, but no single instrument demonstrated statistical superiority. The study provides support for implementing actuarial instruments in applied risk assessments of child molesters.
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Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis.
William M. Grove, David H. Zald, Boyd S. Lebow et al. · Psychological Assessment · 2000 · 1.6K citations
Public Health, Biomedical Engineering, Clinical Decision Support +10
Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk
Kirk Heilbrun · Psychiatric Services · 2000 · 1.2K citations