Effects of Family Instability, Income, and Income Instability on the Risk of a Premarital Birth

Abstract

In this study I contrast hypotheses about the effects of family structure on premarital birth risks with three income hypotheses: (1) a low income hypothesis--that the risk of a premarital birth is higher for women from disadvantaged economic backgrounds because they possess fewer or less attractive economic opportunities; (2) a permanent income and transitory income hypothesis--that uncertainties generated by unexpected fluctuations in family income increase premarital birth risks net of absolute income levels; and (3) an income level and income change hypothesis--that downward trends in family income reflect worsening socioeconomic opportunities that increase premarital birth risks net of absolute income levels. I use prospective income and retrospective parental histories in the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to determine if the effect of family instability...is an artifact of low unstable or declining income in the family of origin. (EXCERPT)