Selection of simplified models: II. Development of a model selection criterion based on mean squared error

Abstract

Abstract Simplified models (SMs) with a reduced set of parameters are used in many practical situations, especially when the available data for parameter estimation are limited. A variety of candidate models are often considered during the model formulation, simplification, and parameter estimation processes. We propose a new criterion to help modellers select the best SM, so that predictions with lowest expected mean squared error can be obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed criterion for selecting simplified nonlinear univariate and multivariate models is demonstrated using Monte‐Carlo simulations and is compared with the effectiveness of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC).