Specifying Weights in Spatial Forecasting Models: The Results of Some Experiments

Abstract

The application of space-time forecasting models requires the specification of a set of place-to-place weights. The existing literature contains several recommendations for this specification. By a series of Monte Carlo simulations, various weighting rules are compared in terms of estimation of model parameters and accuracy of forecasts. It is shown that specification of the weights is important, especially when sample sizes are small and the data autocorrelated. Generally, the effective area of the weight function is more important than its distance decay.