Strategic Conflict Avoidance and the Diversionary Use of Force

Abstract

The argument that state leaders sometimes use military force as a way to divert attention from their domestic political problems has long been controversial. One of the most important recent objections to it is that potential target states may strategically avoid conflict with a state whose leaders are experiencing domestic political difficulties. This article tests this argument using COPDAB and WEIS events data on rivals of the United States. The results offer qualified support for the argument that likely targets of a diversionary use of force by the United States behave more cooperatively when the American economy is performing poorly.