Multiple Comparison of Entropies with Application to Dinosaur Biodiversity

Abstract

Did the biodiversity of dinosaurs decline, or did it remain more or less constant before their mass extinction 65 million years ago? Sheehan et al. (1991, Science, 835-839) reported that the biodiversity of families of dinosaur species remained more or less constant preceding their extinction, suggesting extinction due to a cataclysmic event such as an asteroid strike. But that claim was based on the incorrect interpretation that a large p value associated with a test of null hypothesis of equality supports that null hypothesis. To assess whether there is a basis for such a claim, we formulate the problem as one of practical equivalence, in analalogy to bioequivalence. We then develop reliable practical equivalence confidence intervals for differences of entropies by applying the bootstrap-t technique to a nearly pivotal quantity. Confidence intervals for changes in the biodiversity of dinosaurs are then computed, allowing the reader to assess whether there is evidence of near constancy of dinosaur biodiversity before extinction.