Exploring Optimistic Bias and the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction in the Context of a Campus Influenza Outbreak

Abstract

This study aims to determine the utility of constructs from the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction in predicting behaviors associated with flu prevention in a college campus. Building on previous studies that document substantial optimistic bias among college students, this study explores possible roles for optimistic bias in the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction. The authors conducted an online survey among a stratified random sample (N = 429) of undergraduate students in a university that experienced a large H1N1 influenza outbreak in the fall of 2009. The authors offer 3 major findings: (a) the 3 primary components in the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction predicted the intention to perform hand washing and sanitizing, with self-efficacy being the strongest predictor; (b) unrealistic optimists had significantly lower intentions to perform hand hygiene practices compared with realists or unrealistic pessimists; and (c) comparative optimism was a significant moderator of the relation between self-efficacy and behavioral intention, controlling for perceived risk. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.