A system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence

Abstract

Abstract A system dynamics model reproduces a variety of national Indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a 15‐year period and provides detailed estimates of actual underlying prevalence. Sensitivity testing clarifies the source of observed trends, such as growth in the compulsive use of crack cocaine and decline in the casual use of cocaine powder. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications are simulated and projected for 12 years, and the results are assessed.