The 22/11 Risk Prediction Model: A Validated Model for Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

Abstract

In cirrhotic patients with SBP receiving standard therapy, MELD score ≥22 and peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×10⁹ cells/l are validated independent predictors of mortality. The mortality in a patient without either poor prognostic variable is ≤10% and with both variables is ≥50%. Trials aiming to reduce mortality should target patients in the moderate-risk to high-risk groups.