Simulating icelandic vegetation cover during the holocene implications for long‐term land degradation

Abstract

We have simulated the spatial relationship between temperature change and long‐term potential vegetation cover dynamics. The results show that the potential vegetation and birch forest range is highly sensitive to the temperature conditions. Around 3000 BP the simulated potential vegetation cover began to decrease and at the time of the Viking settlement, in AD 874 (1076 BP), vegetation and forest cover was already in decline. The climate driven decline continued to an unprecedented low potential for vegetation for the Holocene that lasted c. 600 years, i.e. between ADc. 1300 and 1900. These interpretations are further supported by geomorphological and pollen data.