Structural drivers of upstream supply chain complexity and the frequency of supply chain disruptions

TLDR

While supply‑chain risk management has been widely studied, little empirical work has examined which supply‑chain characteristics raise disruption frequency, a question of importance for firms seeking operational stability. This study investigates how upstream supply‑chain complexity influences the frequency of supply‑side disruptions. Using a multi‑dimensional model grounded in supply‑chain complexity theory, the authors test the impact of horizontal, vertical, and spatial complexity on disruption frequency. Results show that each of the three complexity dimensions increases disruption frequency and that their interactions synergistically amplify this effect.

Abstract

Abstract A great deal of research has focused on supply chain risk management, but the question “Which supply chain characteristics increase the frequency of supply chain disruptions?” has not received much attention from empirical research. This is a relevant question, because firms seek stability in their operations, and therefore managers need to know how the structure of their supply chains affects the occurrence of disruptions. The present study addresses this issue with a specific focus on upstream supply chain (supply‐side) disruptions. Drawing on the literature on supply chain complexity, we devise and test a model that predicts the frequency of supply chain disruptions based on a multi‐dimensional conceptualization of upstream supply chain complexity. Not only do the empirical findings suggest that all of the three investigated complexity drivers – horizontal, vertical, and spatial complexity – increase the frequency of disruptions, but also that they interact and amplify each other's effects in a synergistic fashion.