Applied Mixed Generalized Additive Model to Assess the Effect of Temperature on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery and Its Forecast

Abstract

According to the model estimation, corresponding Risk Ratio to affect BD was close to 1.1 when temperature effect goes up for 1°C in the range from 12°C to 22°C. And the 1-day incubation period could be inferred from the model estimation. Good prediction has been made using the predictive MGAM.