Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy

Abstract

Abstract The majority of model‐based forecasting efforts today rely on relatively simple techniques of estimation and the subjective adjustment of the model's results to produce forecasts. Published forecasts reflect to a great extent the judgment of the forecaster rather than what the model by itself has to say about the future. This paper examines the role judgment plays in the process of producing a macroeconometric forecast. The debate over the use of adjustment constants to alter the statistical results of a model is outlined and an empirical analysis of forecasts generated by the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the US economy is presented using a unique data set which isolates the role of judgment in the forecasting process.