A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics

Abstract

We present a RELM forecast of future earthquakes in California that is primarily based on the pattern informatics (PI) method.This method identifies regions that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity, and it has been demonstrated to be successful.A PI forecast map originally published on 19 February 2002 for southern California successfully forecast the locations of sixteen of eighteen M>5 earthquakes during the past three years.The method has also been successfully applied to Japan and on a worldwide basis.An alternative approach to earthquake forecasting is the relative intensity (RI) method.The RI forecast map is based on recent levels of seismic activity of small earthquakes.Recent advances in the PI method show considerable improvement, particularly when compared with the RI method using relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams for binary forecasts.The RELM application requires a probability for each location for a number of magnitude bins over a five year period.We have therefore constructed a hybrid forecast in which we combine the PI method with the RI method to compute a map of probabilities for events occurring at any location, rather than just the most probable locations.These probabilities are further converted, using Gutenberg-Richter scaling laws, to anticipated rates of future earthquakes that can be evaluated using the RELM test.