Forecasting Tourism Demand: The Role of Seasonality

Abstract

Most tourism destinations are affected by seasonality. Seasonal demand causes various problems for local firms and administrations hampering the efficient use of available facilities and the development of local capabilities. This paper discusses, from an econometric point of view, another important issue stemming from strong seasonality: the effect on forecasting tourist flows. This aspect of seasonality is addressed through an analysis of tourist arrivals in the Province of Lecce, southern Italy.