Prediction of Drought Risk Based on the WRF Model in Yunnan Province of China

Abstract

Yunnan province is the core region of the drought in the Southwest China, which makes the region become the hot spot in the meteorological research. However, among the various influencing factors of the drought in Yunnan province, the influence of the land use/cover change (LUCC) on the drought has not been quantitatively analyzed. The LUCC in recent decades was first quantitatively analyzed in this study. Given the fact that severe drought in Yunnan province is mainly due to much-less-than-normal precipitation and much-warmer-than-normal surface temperature, this study focused on the future spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the temperature and precipitation, which have great impacts on the drought. Finally, the influencing factors of drought in Yunnan province were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the risk of drought was spatially analyzed with the meteorological drought composite index. The results indicate that the large-area forest plays a more important role in alleviating the risk of drought than other vegetation types do. Besides, the changes of the landscape structure resulting from the urban expansion play a significant role in intensifying the risk of drought.