Brittle Failure Mechanism of Multiple Locked Patches in a Seismogenic Fault and Exploration of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction

Abstract

Abstract This study attempts to reveal the possible linkage between the critical failure‐fracture and creep process of locked patches in a seimogenic fault. It suggests that the ratio of cumulative Benioff strain of the fracture point to that of the start point of accelerating creep on each locked patch depends on the number of locked patches in an exponential rule with a base value 1.48. Prior to the failure of the last locked patch, the critical failure‐fracture of each patch may produce a preshock of intermediate size or larger. And after the failure of the last patch, the main shock would occur. The retrospective predictions to many seismic events demonstrate that this exponential rule can be used to forecast intermediate‐sized preshocks and large main shocks. This method can be applied to efforts of intermediate‐term and short‐term as well as impending earthquake prediction. The value 1.48 is very likely a universal constant that is indicative of the generation processes of intermediate‐sized or larger preshocks and main shocks. At last, this paper discusses some controversial issues in research of earthquake prediction and proves the applicability of this method from perspectives of theory and technology.