The relationship between antenatal risk characteristics, place of delivery and adverse delivery outcome in rural Malawi

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To describe and compare the frequency of antenatally identified maternal 'risk' characteristics, place of delivery and occurrence of delivery complications. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 780 pregnant women completing antenatal follow-up at a rural health center in Malawi. RESULTS: Three-quarters of the subjects had at least one commonly accepted risk characteristic. Only 30% of these women, and 22% of those with no risk characteristics, delivered in a modern health facility. Four women died, 127 experienced other delivery complications and there were 52 perinatal deaths. The 'at-risk' classification had over 80% sensitivity but less than 30% specificity to predict delivery complications or perinatal deaths. The positive predictive values were as low as 20% for delivery complications and 7% for perinatal mortality. Most individual 'risk' characteristics were not associated with adverse delivery outcomes, even when adjusted for the place of delivery. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal risk identification failed to promote safe deliveries because of a poor predictive value of the 'risk' variables and the failure of the identified 'at-risk' individuals to deliver in modern health facilities.