The start of the sub‐Saharan fertility transition: Some answers and many questions

Abstract

Abstract Factors associated with socioeconomic development such as increased education and urbanization were initially associated in sub‐Saharan Africa with an increase in fertility. This was largely due to their eroding effects on durations of breastfeeding and postpartum abstinence, and in some regions also to lowered levels of infecundity. During the 1980's the second phase of the transition emerged in areas located in Eastern and Southern Africa. This phase is characterized by increasing proportions of users of modern contraception and by a decrease in desired family size. Such a decisive turn around did, however, not occur in situations with expanding economies, but rather during the crises of the last decade. The theory of the ‘crisis‐led fertility transition’ can help to explain this outcome, but it also has its limitations. If the crisis deepens and hits the health and education sectors, negative effects emerge as crucial props such as female schooling levels and family planning provisions may suffer severe set‐backs.