Stock Prices and Social Dynamics

Abstract

Prices and Social DynamicsFashion is the great governor of this world; it presides not only in matters of dress and amusement, but in law, physic, politics, religion, and all other things of the gravest kind; indeed, the wisest of men would be puzzled to give any better reason why particular forms in all these have been at certain times universally received, and at others universally rejected, than that they were in or out of fashion. Henry Fielding'INVESTING in speculative assets is a social activity.Investors spend a substantial part of their leisure time discussing investments, reading about investments, or gossiping about others' successes or failures in investing.It is thus plausible that investors' behavior (and hence prices of speculative assets) would be influenced by social movements.Attitudes or fashions seem to fluctuate in many other popular topics of conversation, such as food, clothing, health, or politics.These fluctuations in attitude often occur widely in the population and often appear without any apparent logical reason.It is plausible that attitudes or fashions regarding investments would also change spontaneously or in arbitrary social reaction to some widely noted events.Most of those who buy and sell in speculative markets seem to take it for granted that social movements significantly influence the behavior of prices.Popular interpretations of the recurrent recessions that we observe often include ideas that the shifts in, say, consumer confidence John Pound provided research assistance.