The Southern Oscillation and Long-Range Forecasting of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Darwin pressure anomalies are examined for the 81-year period 1901–81. It is found that the tendency of the Darwin pressure anomaly before the monsoon season is a good indicator of the monsoon rainfall anomaly. During the 81-year period, there were only two instances (1901, 1941) when a negative tendency of winter (December, January, February) to spring (March, April, May) Darwin pressure anomaly was followed by a monsoon rainfall anomaly of less than minus one standard deviation; and only three instances (1916, 1933, 1961) when a positive tendency was followed by a rainfall anomaly of more than one standard deviation. Therefore, if the Darwin pressure anomaly during March, April and May is below normal, and if the Darwin seasonal pressure anomaly has been falling a non-occurrence of drought over India can be predicted with a very high degree of confidence. Similarly, above normal Darwin pressure during March, April and May, and increasing seasonal pressure anomaly is a good indicator of the non-occurrence of very heavy rain over India.