Identification of Optimization-Based Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios for Regional Loss Estimation

Abstract

We develop a method to estimate long-term earthquake hazard for use in regional loss estimation. The method includes formulation of a linear program that selects a small subset of earthquake scenarios from a library of such events and estimates hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities so that their combined effect on the region of interest approximates that described by r-year return period maps that account for all possible events while preserving recurrence relationships based on geological and seismological data. The method is reproducible, computationally tractable, and results in easily understood earthquake scenarios. We apply it to identify earthquake scenarios for Tehran, Iran.