Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions

TLDR

Current estimates of deforestation carbon emissions rely on broad assumptions and unreliable data, limiting policy effectiveness. The study aims to estimate gross carbon emissions from tropical deforestation between 2000 and 2005 using satellite‑derived forest loss and carbon stock maps. The authors use satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a forest carbon stock map to calculate emissions, yielding 0.81 Pg C yr⁻¹ with a 90 % prediction interval of 0.57–1.22 Pg C yr⁻¹. The resulting estimate is 25–50 % lower than recent published values and provides a more accurate benchmark for monitoring deforestation‑related emissions.

Abstract

Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.