Risk Analysis · 2005 · 76 citations · 19 references
Social SciencesPsychologySocial PsychologyBehavioral EconomicsDecision TheoryRisk PerceptionBehavioral Decision-makingDecision Making Under RiskDecision Under RiskRisk BehaviorRisk PreferencesRisk-sensitive Decision MakingExperimental Risk TakingGraphical Risk PresentationLog-linear RegressionNumerical Data RepresentationRisk Behavior ReductionRisk Information ProcessingRisk Preferences ElicitationRisky Decision Making
By displaying a risk reduction of 50% graphically rather than numerically, Stone, Yates, and Parker significantly increased professed risk-avoidant behavior. The current experiments replicated this effect at various risk ratios. Specifically, participants were willing to spend more money to reduce a risk when the risk information was displayed by asterisks rather than by numbers for risk-reduction ratios ranging from 3% to 97%. Transforming the amount participants were willing to spend to logarithms significantly improved a linear fit to the data, suggesting that participants convert this variable within the decision-making process. Moreover, a log-linear model affords an exceptional fit to both the graphical and numerical data, suggesting that a graphical presentation elicits the same decision-making mechanism as does the numerical display. In addition, the data also suggest that each person removed from harm is weighted more by some additional factor in the graphical compared to the numerical presentations.
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Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
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