Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011

TLDR

Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and the legacy of past fire management are expected to further disrupt fire regimes in the western U.S. and other fire‑prone regions worldwide. The study used a database of large wildfires (>405 ha) in the western U.S. to document regional trends in fire occurrence, total area, size, and ignition timing from 1984 to 2011.

Abstract

Abstract We used a database capturing large wildfires (> 405 ha) in the western U.S. to document regional trends in fire occurrence, total fire area, fire size, and day of year of ignition for 1984–2011. Over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions, we found significant, increasing trends in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year. Trends were most significant for southern and mountain ecoregions, coinciding with trends toward increased drought severity. For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km 2 per year. Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and consequences of past fire management, added to the impacts of larger, more frequent fires, will drive further disruptions to fire regimes of the western U.S. and other fire‐prone regions of the world.