Integrating biophysical controls in forest growth and yield predictions with artificial intelligence technology

Abstract

Growth and yield models are critically important for forest management planning. Biophysical factors such as light, temperature, soil water, and nutrient conditions are known to have major impacts on tree growth. However, it is difficult to incorporate these biophysical variables into growth and yield models due to large variation and complex nonlinear relationships between variables. In this study, artificial intelligence technology was used to develop individual-tree-based basal area (BA) and volume increment models. The models successfully account for the effects of incident solar radiation, growing degree days, and indices of soil water and nutrient availability on BA and volume increments of over 40 species at 5-year intervals. The models were developed using data from over 3000 permanent sample plots across the province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Model validation with independent field data produced model efficiencies of 0.38 and 0.60 for the predictions of BA and volume increments, respectively. The models are applicable to predict tree growth in mixed species, even- or uneven-aged forests in Nova Scotia but can easily be calibrated for other climatic and geographic regions. Artificial neural network models demonstrated better prediction accuracy than conventional regression-based approaches. Artificial intelligence techniques have considerable potential in forest growth and yield modelling.